{"id":357,"date":"2026-06-11T13:15:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/longhaulmovingpros.com\/?p=357"},"modified":"2026-06-11T13:15:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:15:15","slug":"what-happens-if-ai-causes-25-unemployment-anthropic-has-a-concept-of-a-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/longhaulmovingpros.com\/?p=357","title":{"rendered":"What Happens If AI Causes 25% Unemployment? Anthropic Has a Concept of a Plan"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

It seems to be one of the most pressing questions in the world of AI these days. If artificial intelligence tools cause massive disruptions in the economy and unemployment soars, what should AI companies and the government do about it?<\/p>\n

Read more Anthropic Apologizes For One of the Guardrails on Its Fable 5 Model, and Will Change It<\/a><\/p>\n

Anthropic released a new economic policy framework on Wednesday that aims to tackle these questions, and the company has pledged $350 million to help work through solutions. But it remains to be seen how the federal government under President Donald Trump will respond.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are not seeking job displacement. We are working to prevent or minimize it,\u201d Anthropic explained in releasing the new paper. \u201cSome amount of displacement, though we cannot say how much, may be an intrinsic consequence of the technology, and our responsibility is to prepare for it and respond to it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The company has three different proposals, one for a world with 5% unemployment, one with 10% unemployment, and one with so-called \u201cunprecedented unemployment.\u201d The current unemployment rate is 4.3%. The last time unemployment rose about 10% was in 2009, and before that in 1983. And the highest unemployment rate of the 20th century was during the Great Depression, when the unemployment rate hit 25% in 1933.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

If unemployment only rises to 5%, Anthropic proposes the expansion of \u201cnew capital accounts seeded at birth,\u201d and allowing young adults to benefit from them as well.<\/p>\n

\u201cCurrently, these accounts can hold only index funds\u2014not a stake in AI companies,\u201d the company continued. \u201cWe also propose policies like workforce training grants, occupational licensing reform, and wage insurance, that make it easier for workers to find new roles and enter new industries.\u201d Anthropic also proposes creating incentives for companies that retain and redeploy workers under the 5% plan.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

The company explains that it\u2019s unclear whether job disruptions will be a \u201ctemporary shock\u201d or an \u201cenduring restructuring, in which the demand for human labor is significantly and persistently lower.\u201d But either way, Anthropic says something must be done.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the 10% scenario, our priority is expanded unemployment insurance, which we propose supplementing with sector-specific transition support and basic-needs relief,\u201d Anthropic explains. \u201cIf AI does become a general substitute for human labor, policymakers will also need to consider the pace of its rollout, including by incentivizing firms to manage displacement gradually.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Under the most dire \u201cunprecedented unemployment\u201d situation, which presumably means higher than 25%, Anthropic believes there will be a need for \u201cincome replacement,\u201d as they call it, \u201cfor a large share of the workforce.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Layoffs Coming to Xbox Next Month, Report Says<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ll need new sources of tax revenue, and new ways of sharing this broadly, which might include basic income, sovereign wealth models, and equity-sharing mechanisms,\u201d the company explains. \u201cThis scenario is novel economic territory, so we\u2019re less certain about the right answers here.\u201d<\/p>\n

Anthropic claims in its paper that it\u2019s not ready to advocate for specific policies in the worst-case scenario, but it says it\u2019s investing in researching different mechanisms, like:<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n